Wolf management in Latvia reduces livestock kills

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The study “Does Wolf Management in Latvia Decrease Livestock Depredation?” by Šuba et al., published in the journal Sustainability in 2023, investigates whether the wolf hunting practiced in Latvia since 2004 has a measurable impact on the number of livestock depredations. The researchers analyzed comprehensive data from 19 years (2004-2022) on wolf density, hunting rates, age structure of the animals, availability of wild animals as prey, sheep density and the use of protective measures on pastures.

Key findings:

1. No effect of hunting on the reduction of livestock kills:
   The evaluation shows that the number of wolf attacks on sheep does not fall when more wolves are shot. On the contrary: in years with a higher proportion of wolves killed (culling rate), the number of attacks actually increased slightly. The authors assume that the shooting of adult animals in particular leads to the destabilization of the pack structure. This can lead to inexperienced young animals switching to Livestock because they lack hunting experience on game.
2. Increasing damage per attack:
   While there was an average of 2.6 affected sheep per documented attack at the beginning of the survey period (2004-2009), this figure has risen to an average of 5.5 animals in recent years (2017-2022). This increase is also confirmed as statistically significant and indicates an intensification of the problem – despite hunting intensity remaining the same or even increasing.
3. Attacks are concentrated in summer and fall:
   Most attacks take place between July and October – i.e. during the open hunting season in Latvia. This is problematic because it is precisely at this time that packs are dependent on functioning social structures for rearing their young. The loss of adult animals can have negative effects on the behavior of the pack.
4. Lack of preventive measures as the main cause:
   A particularly revealing aspect of the study concerns the protective measures on affected pastures. In 35.8% of the documented cases, no protective measures were used. In a further 52.6%, unsuitable methods were used – including fences that were too low or too weak or chained dogs. Only 2 % of the affected farms actually used effective protection measures such as sufficiently high, multi-wire electric fences or shepherd escorts.
5. Other influencing factors:
   • The number of attacks correlates with the density of sheep in a region: where more sheep are kept, there are more cracks.
   • Deer density had no clear influence – with the exception of red deer density, where higher populations correlated with slightly higher rupture rates. One possible explanation is the displacement of roe deer, which are actually the main prey of wolves, by the more competitive red deer.

Conclusion:

The authors come to the clear conclusion that the current wolf management in Latvia – with high hunting pressure and a lack of support for livestock protection – is not suitable for reducing livestock kills. Instead, they recommend

• Investments in effective protection measures (e.g. electric fences, Livestock guarding dogs, shepherds),
• Subsidies and training for animal owners,
• as well as a reassessment of hunting in terms of functioning pack management.

The results are also highly relevant for other European countries, especially where herd protection measures have so far received little support and hunting is considered the primary management tool.

Literature:

Šuba, J. et al. (2023). Does Wolf Management in Latvia Decrease Livestock Depredation? An Analysis of Available Data. Sustainability 15(11), 8509.

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